On November 4, 2019, GW Institute for Korean Studies and East Asia National Resource Center co-hosted the Korea Policy Forum on “Nuclear and Conventional Arms Control on the Korean Peninsula.” Yong-Sup Han, Professor at the Korea National Defense University, South Korea, discussed four potential scenarios of North Korea’s denuclearization: (i) a small deal in denuclearization (shutdown of Youngbyon plus α nuclear facilities in return for U.S. sanctions relief) and phase-1 conventional arms control (September 19 inter–Korean Comprehensive Military Agreement), (ii) a big deal in denuclearization (Final and Fully Verifiable Denuclearization of North Korean nuclear facilities and arsenal) and phase-1 conventional arms control, (iii) a small deal and phase-2 (structured) conventional arms control, and (iv) a big deal and phase-2 (structured) conventional arms control. Professor Han suggested that scenario (i) is most likely because it will allow North Korea to manage to maintain peace while implementing the September 19 inter–Korean Comprehensive Military Agreement, without having to move toward the phase-2 conventional arms control. Professor Han predicted that if Washington and Pyongyang strike a small deal, Pyongyang would want to remain as a nuclear weapon state with small arsenal.
Young-jun Kim, Professor at the Korea National Defense University, discussed the current status and the future of conventional arms control on the Korean Peninsula. Professor Kim discussed the importance of Kim Jong-Un’s political objectives, including his goal of becoming independent from China and strengthening North Korean middle class for his long-term political survival. He stressed that North Korea’s motivation for conventional arms control changed from the military-first to a pragmatic economy-first policy. Professor Kim suggested that the U.S. and South Korea share long-term political and strategic objectives and design concrete steps of conventional arms control together.
Joanna Spear, Associate Professor of International Affair at the George Washington University, pointed out the two presenters highlighted the classic dilemma in terms of determining the scale and scope and inherent values of arms control. Professor Spear suggested that to be more realistic, the denuclearization scenarios should include stasis where Washington and Pyongyang would not be able to make any breakthrough. She also stressed that U.S. domestic politics should be factored in because the next U.S. president may have different perspectives from the Trump administration on the negotiation with North Korea.
