metal compass sitting on a sheet of paper with numbers printed over it

9/12 Next Steps in the U.S.-Korea Economic Relations

This event is off the record and closed to media.

GWIKS NRC

The GW Institute for Korean Studies & the East Asia National Resource Center Present:

 

Korea Policy Forum

“Next Steps in the U.S.-Korea Economic Relations”

Speaker
Wendy Cutler, ESIA BA ’79
Vice President and Managing Director, Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI)

 

Date & Time
Thursday, September 12, 2019
2:00 pm – 3:15 pm

 

Location
Room 505
Elliott School of International Affairs, the George Washington University
1957 E Street, NW, Washington, DC 20052

Event Description

This year, the uncertainties in the U.S.-Korea trade relations have been significantly mitigated by the implementation of the revised U.S.-Korea FTA. What are the next steps to be discussed to ensure healthy economic relations between the two allies?  In which area can the United States and Korea strengthen their economic cooperation? What are the potential implications of other trade relations in the region, including the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and the recent trade feud between Korea and Japan, for the U.S.-Korea economic relationship and in the context of the global value chains?

 

Speaker

Wendy Cutler (ESIA BA ’79) joined the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) as vice president in November 2015. She also serves as the managing director of the Washington D.C. Office. In these roles, she focuses on building ASPI’s presence in Washington — strengthening its outreach as a think/do tank — and on leading initiatives that address challenges related to trade and investment, as well as women’s empowerment in Asia. She joined ASPI following an illustrious career of nearly three decades as a diplomat and negotiator in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR). Most recently she served as Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative, working on a range of U.S. trade negotiations and initiatives in the Asia-Pacific region. In that capacity she was responsible for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, including the bilateral negotiations with Japan. She also was the chief negotiator to the U.S.-Korea (Korus) Free Trade Agreement. Cutler received her master’s degree from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and her bachelor’s degree from the George Washington University.

 

Moderator

portrait of Yonho Kim with white backgroundYonho Kim is Associate Research Professor of Practice and Associate Director of GW Institute for Korean Studies. He specializes in North Korea’s mobile telecommunications and U.S. policy towards North Korea. Kim is the author of North Korea’s Mobile Telecommunications and Private Transportation Services in the Kim Jong-un Era (2019) and Cell Phones in North Korea: Has North Korea Entered the Telecommunications Revolution? (2014). His research findings were covered by various media outlets, including Wall Street Journal, The Atlantic, Yonhap News, and Libération. Prior to joining GWIKS, he extensively interacted with the Washington policy circle on the Korean peninsula as Senior Researcher of the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, Senior Reporter for Voice of America’s Korean Service, and Assistant Director of the Atlantic Council’s Program on Korea in Transition. He holds a B.A. and M.A. in International Relations from Seoul National University, and an M.A. in International Relations and International Economics from Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.

Kim Jong-un and Xi Jinping holding hands for press photos at a conference

[May 20, 2019] Korea Policy Forum: “China’s Envisioning of North Korea’s Future, Inferred by the Summits between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un”

GWIKS NRC

The GW Institute for Korean Studies
&
the East Asia National Resource Center Present:

Korea Policy Forum

“China’s Envisioning of North Korea’s Future,
Inferred by the Summits between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un”
 

Korea Policy Forum 5/20

Speaker
LEE Seong-hyon, Director, Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute

 

Date & Time
Monday, May 20, 2019, 3:30 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.

 

Venue
Room 505, Elliott School of International Affairs, the George Washington University
1957 E St. NW, Washington, DC 20052


Event Description

 

During its negotiations with North Korea, Washington has urged Kim Jong-un to choose denuclearization that will allow North Korea to enjoy prosperity on par with South Korea. The U.S. helped South Korea to become a prosperous and democratic state. In the U.S. history of foreign intervention, South Korea is the most successful case of ‘democratic transition.’ Since South Korea achieved both democratic transition and economic prosperity, it has been frequently referred to as the ‘poster child’ of a successful U.S. foreign policy. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping is known as an ardent proponent of socialism and Marxism. President Xi said that the CPC’s decision to adhere to political theories of Karl Marx this March was ‘totally correct’ (Xinhua News Agency, May 4, 2018). During the second summit with Kim Jong-un in Dalian, Xi said, “both China and the DPRK are socialist countries, and their bilateral relations are of major strategic significance.” (Xinhua News Agency, May 8, 2018). Naturally, this poses the question of whether President Xi’s outlook on North Korea is compatible with that of the Trump administration. Even though both the U.S. and China desire North Korea’s denuclearization, this question needs attention as the two have different views on North Korea’s future and its political system.

 


Speaker


LEE Seong-hyon, Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute

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LEE Seong-hyon, Ph.D., is Director, Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute in Seoul. A native of Seoul, he lived in Beijing for 11 years out of his 22-year study and research career on China. Previously, he was Director, Department of Unification Strategy at the Sejong Institute. He has written extensively on the relations between the U.S., China, and Korea. He is the author of the 2019 bestseller, “The U.S.-China Competition: Who will Rule the World?” Seoul: Books Garden (ISBN: 979-11-6416-009-9) and the academic article, “Why Did We Get China Wrong? Reconsidering the Popular Narrative: China will Abandon North Korea” International Journal of Korean Unification Studies, vol.25, no.1, pp. 65-93 (2016). He gave lectures and talks at Harvard Kennedy School, Stanford University, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, University of Pennsylvania, Seoul National University. He was also invited to The Shangri-La Dialogue, Boao Forum, and Salzburg Global Seminar. His comments and columns appeared at CNN, BBC, New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Al Jazeera, Foreign Policy, The Korea Times, Chinese CCTV, the Straits Times, Hong Hong Phoenix TV, among others. He is a graduate from Grinnell College, Harvard University, and Tsinghua University (Ph.D. in political communication and global communication). He was the 2013-14 Pantech Fellow of Stanford University’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC). Currently, he is also Senior Research Fellow (non-resident) at the Center for Korean Peninsula Studies at Peking University.

 

 

 

Moderator


Jisoo M. Kim, GW Institute for Korean Studies

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Jisoo M. Kim is Korea Foundation Associate Professor of History, International Affairs, and East Asian Languages and Literatures and Director of the Institute for Korean Studies at GW. She received her Ph.D. in Korean History from Columbia University. She is a specialist in gender and legal history of early modern Korea. Her broader research interests include gender and sexuality, crime and justice, forensic medicine, literary representations of the law, history of emotions, vernacular, and gender writing. She is the author of The Emotions of Justice: Gender, Status, and Legal Performance in Chosŏn Korea (University of Washington Press, 2015), which was awarded the 2017 James Palais Prize of the Association for Asian Studies. She is also the co-editor of The Great East Asian War and the Birth of the Korean Nation by JaHyun Kim Haboush (Columbia University Press, 2016). She is currently working on a new book project titled Suspicious Deaths: Forensic Medicine, Dead Bodies, and Criminal Justice in Chosŏn Korea.

 

 

This event is on the record and open to the media.

[May 6th, 2019] Korea Policy Forum: “North Korea and Myanmar: Divergent Paths”

On May 6th, 2019, GWIKS and the Sigur Center for Asian Studies co-sponsored Korea Policy Forum with Andray Abrahamian, 2018-2019 Koret Fellow at Stanford University, on “North Korea and Myanmar: Divergent Paths.” Moderated by Professor Jisoo M. Kim, Director of the Institute for Korean Studies at GW, Dr. Abrahamian began by sharing with the audience of his experience of working in North Korea. During his work at Choson Exchange, he has lived in Beijing and traveled to North Korea numerous times. When his wife got a job in Myanmar, he began to question “what needs to happen when a country is trying to come in from a period of isolation and reintegrate with the global community.” His research on comparing Myanmar and North Korea has been produced into his recent book, North Korea and Myanmar: Divergent Paths. Why has Myanmar transitioned successfully when North Korea could not?

 

Dr. Abrahamian explained that the reasons he decided to compare these two culturally different countries, with divergent histories, and different experiences of colonialism. Strategically they occupy similar positions for China at the heart of Asian landmass, as northeastern and southwestern buffer states. The people of both countries have suffered a long period of isolation and poverty by the choices made by their governments and external responses to their policies. Also, they are the only countries that almost completely sat out wealth creation project that stretch from Singapore to Japan that lifted hundreds of millions of people from poverty. Some claim that Myanmar is still a basket case with ethnic cleansing and genocide still taking place. Dr. Abrahamian explained that while it is true, the current situation of Myanmar is in no comparison to that of North Korea. He argued that both countries, from their births, have faced existential security threat and only in the process of overcoming that threat, was the state of Myanmar able to turn its focus to the reasons for its isolation and address those sufficiently to reintegrate itself into the international community. North Koreans, however, are still trying to find ways to address that security threat. Both of those threats develop outside of the state emerge from their colonial period.

 

Dr. Abrahamian explained that in North Korea, every single person involved in publishing is heavily surveilled and everything that comes out in the media is subject to strict censorship, whereas, in Myanmar, the press is given more freedom and leniency. Even in controlling its borders, Myanmar’s borders are porous and easily accessible, whereas North Korean borders are among the most fiercely guarded places in the world. Snuggling takes place in both places, but in far less frequency in North Korea than in Myanmar. Finally, North Korea operates under a state ideology – the grand narrative of the Korean people righteously struggling for their independence against the hostile world; something absent in Burma. After comparing the conditions of North Korea and Myanmar, Dr. Abrahamian concluded that North Korea and Myanmar, despite their similar histories, have taken different paths mainly due to their government policies.

Korea Policy Forum: Troy Strangarone, “The Implications of Demographic Decline for South Korean National Security”

On April 4, 2019, GWIKS hosted its very first Korea Policy Forum with Troy Stangarone, Senior Director of Congressional Affairs and Trade at Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) on “The Implications of Demographic Decline for South Korean National Security”. Moderated by Professor Celeste Arrington, Korea Foundation Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University, Mr. Stangarone began his lecture by introducing two theories on demographics and national security: geriatric peace and increase in instability. He explained that, according to the Geriatric Peace theory, as the population ages, economic growth will slow down, with the decline in the population in the workforce and more capital spent on welfare. This is problematic in that the government has less to spend on defence. He also pointed out that not all countries will age at the same rate, leading to weakening of security in countries with lower birth rates, particularly South Korea. According to the Increasing Instability theory, countries with younger population will likely transition to neo-authoritarianism (for example, China or Russia), but will not transition to high-income states (for example South Korea and Taiwan), causing international instability. In countries with multi-ethnicity, some ethnicities will rise while others decline, based on their rate of aging population.

Mr. Stangarone then presented a graph of prospects on South Korean demographic trend. The graph displayed three possible trends in South Korean population from 2015 to 2040. As he pointed out that in 2018, South Korea’s total fertility rate had reached below 1 at 0.98, predicted that the potential trend in South Korean population will be somewhere between medium and low trends predicted by the UN. He revealed concern that if South Korea’s population trend moves closer to the low variant, by 2040, 16.5 million people leaving the workforce, decreasing South Korea’s labor pool by half. When added with South Korea’s relatively long life expectancy, there will be less people in the workforce to support the aged population, while more aged population will be in need of support. This is critical in that it will decline economic growth and increase health care costs. He then mentioned that South Korea has the highest level of aged poverty in OECD at 45.7%, along with high rate of old age suicide. South Korea’s declining birth rate can result in social and economic problems in more ways than one.

As far as security, such trend will lead to less capital to spend on national defense and decline in the young population to serve in the military. With South Korea currently confronting North Korea, the size of South Korean military is particularly crucial. Mr. Strangarone then listed some of the Moon administration’s initiatives to resolve the issue: downsizing the military, reducing mandatory service time, shifting reliance from manpower to artificial intelligence, replacing some jobs formerly held by the military with civilians, and budget increase of 7.5% for five years. As he continued to list some of other potential options, he clarified that these suggested solutions are not silver bullets to resolve the problem. The potential options he mentioned includes: tax, healthcare, and pension reforms, labor market reform and raising the retirement age, increased female economic participation, defence reforms, artificial intelligence, and immigration. Among these options, he found that defence reforms to be the most promising. By eliminating the requirement of eight years in reserves, semi-professionalizing the reserves and providing greater income source for the core group of dedicated professionals, the efficiency of the military will increase.

book cover with pole showing the flags of Myanmar and North Korea pointing in opposite directions; text: North Korea and Myanmar: Divergent Paths by Andray Abrahamian

[May 6th, 2019] Korea Policy Forum, “North Korea and Myanmar: Divergent Paths”

The GW Institute for Korean Studies & the Sigur Center for Asian Studies
present:

 Korea Policy Forum, “North Korea and Myanmar: Divergent Paths”

 

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Speaker
Andray Abrahamian, 2018-2019 Koret Fellow, Stanford University

Date & Time
Monday, May 6, 2019, 2:00 pm – 4:00 pm

Venue
Room 505, Elliott School of International Affairs, the George Washington University
1957 E Street, NW, Washington, DC 20052

 


The stories of North Korea and Myanmar (Burma) are two of Asia’s most difficult. For decades they were infamous as the region’s most militarized and repressed, self-isolated and under sanctions by the international community while, from Singapore to Japan, the rest of Asia saw historic wealth creation. Andray Abrahamian, author of the recent book North Korea and Myanmar: Divergent Paths (McFarland, 2018), examines and compares the recent histories of North Korea and Myanmar, asking how both became pariahs and why Myanmar has been able to find a path out of isolation while North Korea has not. He finds that both countries were faced with severe security threats following decolonization. Myanmar was able to largely take care of its main threats in the 1990s and 2000s, allowing it the space to address the reasons for its pariah status. North Korea’s response to its security threat has been to develop nuclear weapons, which in turn perpetuates and exacerbates its isolation and pariah status. In addition, Pyongyang has developed a state ideology and a coercive apparatus unmatched by Myanmar, insulating its decision makers from political pressures and issues of legitimacy to a greater degree.

 

◊ Speaker

 Andray Abrahamian, Stanford University

Andray Abrahamian is the 2018-2019 Koret Fellow at Stanford University. He is also an Adjunct Fellow at Pacific Forum and an Adjunct Fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute. Working for a non-profit, Choson Exchange, has taken him to the DPRK over 30 times; he has also lived in Myanmar and written a book comparing the two countries. He is the co-founder of Coreana Connect, a non-profit dedicated to increasing positive, cooperative US-DPRK exchanges through a focus on women’s issues.

 

 

 

 

 

◊ Moderator

jkModerator: Jisoo M. Kim, GW Institute for Korean Studies

Jisoo M. Kim is Korea Foundation Associate Professor of History, International Affairs, and East Asian Languages and Literatures and Director of the Institute for Korean Studies at GW. She received her Ph.D. in Korean History from Columbia University. She is a specialist in gender and legal history of early modern Korea. Her broader research interests include gender and sexuality, crime and justice, forensic medicine, literary representations of the law, history of emotions, vernacular, and gender writing. She is the author of The Emotions of Justice: Gender, Status, and Legal Performance in Chosŏn Korea (University of Washington Press, 2015), which was awarded the 2017 James Palais Prize of the Association for Asian Studies. She is also the co-editor of The Great East Asian War and the Birth of the Korean Nation by JaHyun Kim Haboush (Columbia University Press, 2016). She is currently working on a new book project titled Suspicious Deaths: Forensic Medicine, Dead Bodies, and Criminal Justice in Chosŏn Korea.

 

 

 

This event is on the record and open to the media.

event tile with background image of elderly Korean men; text: Korea Policy Forum - The Implications of Demographic Decline for South Korean National Security

[April 4th, 2019] Korea Policy Forum: “The Implications of Demographic Decline for South Korean National Security”

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“The Implications of Demographic Decline for South Korean National Security”

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Speaker
Troy Stangarone, Senior Director of Congressional Affairs and Trade, Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)

Moderator
Celeste Arrington, Korea Foundation Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, the George Washington University

Date & Time
Thursday, April 4th, 2019, 12:30 pm – 2:00 pm

Venue
The Chung-wen Shih Conference Room, Suite 503
Elliott School of International Affairs, the George Washington University
1957 E St. NW, Washington, DC 20052


Event Description

South Korea is undergoing rapid aging that will see more those over the age of 65 account for more than 30 percent of the population by 2040. As South Korea’s population ages and declines, it will have long-term implications for South Korean society and the economy. The implications of these changes for economic growth and social spending are often discussed, but what will they mean for South Korean national security? What steps has the South Korean government taken to address the challenges for national security from demographic decline and are there any additional steps they can take?


Speaker:  Troy Stangarone, Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)

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Troy Stangarone is at the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) where he is the Senior Director of Congressional Affairs and Trade. He recently concluded a Posco Fellowship at the East-West Center where he focused on the issue of demographics and national security. At KEI, he focuses on issues pertaining to U.S.-Korea relations, South Korea’s foreign and economic policy, and North Korea. In addition to his work at KEI, Mr. Stangarone is a member of the George Mason University|Korea President’s Advisory Board, the International Council of Korean Studies Board, and the Korea-America Student Conference’s National Advisory Committee. Prior to joining KEI, Mr. Stangarone worked on Capitol Hill for Senator Robert Torricelli on issues relating to foreign affairs and trade.

Moderator: Celeste Arrington, the George Washington University

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Celeste Arrington is Korea Foundation Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at GW. She specializes in comparative politics, with a regional focus on the Koreas and Japan. Her research and teaching focus on law and social movements, the media, lawyers, policy processes, historical justice, North Korean human rights, and qualitative methods. She is also interested in the international relations and security of Northeast Asia and transnational activism. She is the author of Accidental Activists: Victims and Government Accountability in South Korea and Japan (2016) and has published in Comparative Political Studies, Law & Society Review, Journal of East Asian Studies, Pacific Affairs, Asian Survey, and the Washington Post, among others. She received a Ph.D. from the University of California, Berkeley, an MPhil from the University of Cambridge, and an A.B. from Princeton University. She is currently writing a book that analyzes the role of lawyers and legal activism in Japanese and Korean policies related to persons with disabilities and tobacco control.

Light lunch will be served. This event is on the record and open to the media.

October 6: United States – Korea Free Trade Agreement: A Policy Forum

Friday, October 6, 2017 from 12:00 PM to 1:30 PM (EDT)

Rayburn House Office Building, Room 2044
45 Independence Avenue, SW
Washington, DC 20515

United States – Korea Free Trade Agreement:
A Policy Forum
South Korea — the world’s 12th largest economy — is an economic powerhouse 20 percent the size of California. Its economy ranks just below that of Russia, but it is smaller in size than Japan. Revitalized after the war, South Korea has become increasingly democratic and is a major pillar of U.S. defense strategy in the far east.

The United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) secured the framework of U.S.-Korea trade and investment.  For the U.S. services sector, KORUS is the “gold standard” among U.S. trade agreements, and as such it may serve as the basis for future agreements.  Nonetheless, there are others who hold that KORUS disadvantages the United States and who do not support its renegotiation.

This policy forum, organized by J. Robert Vastine, Senior Industry Fellow, Center for Business and Public Policy, will explore the pros and cons of KORUS.

Wendy Cutler, Vice President and Managing Director, Asia Society Policy Institute will offer introductory framing remarks, followed by a panel discussion moderated by J. Bradford Jensen, Senior Policy Scholar, Center for Business and Public Policy, and McCrane/Shaker Chair in International Business, Georgetown University McDonough School of Business. Panelists include:

  • Wendy Cutler, Vice President and Managing Director, Asia Society Policy Institute
  • David J. Salmonsen, Senior Director of Congressional Relations, American Farm Bureau Federation
  • Brad Smith, Chief International Officer, American Council of Life Insurers
Additional panelists to follow.

 Lunch will be provided.

Register here.

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This seminar is part of the Georgetown Center for Business and Public Policy’s Georgetown on the Hill series at which we convene policymakers, academics, and industry experts to discuss important economic policy issues of the day.