On September 22, 2020, the GW Institute for Korea (GWIKS) and East Asia National Resource Center co-sponsored the Korea Policy Forum on “U.S.-Korean Relations in the Era of U.S.-China Strategic Rivalry”. Moderated by Yonho Kim, Associate Director of the GW Institute for Korea, a roundtable of policy experts, representing both the United States and South Korea, engaged in a two-section discussion regarding changing dynamics in U.S.-China relations and how U.S.-Korean relations will affect or be affected by the growing tension between the two rivals.
Section one began with opening remarks from Elbridge Colby, Co-Founder, and Principal of The Marathon Initiative, and Heung-kyu Kim, Director of the U.S.-China Policy Institute at Ajou University, who both outlined the changing dynamics and relationships in play between the U.S., China, South Korea through the lenses of their respective countries. In the case of the United States, there is a grounded, straightforward approach of the continued U.S.-South Korean defensive alliance to balance against the growing threat of China, with the United States backing South Korea with continued military support and a “whole government” support system back in Washington. This comes with an increasing desire for South Korea to take steps to improve its own defense capabilities and notably, taking the lead with dealing with North Korea, a posture that has already begun through continued dialogue across the peninsula.
From the perspective of South Korea comes a fleshed out, broader outline of how the United States and China’s contention is affecting the country, which then leads into some of the disconnects and challenges posed due to their position in the alliance. Where the United States sees China as its direct rival, South Korea does not have that shared perspective due to its economic relationship with China. While South Korea is a strong ally of the United and shares concerns over growing Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, their primary concern in regards to this contention is the ramifications of decoupling from China, who provide a large majority of economic incentive not just to South Korea but many of the other countries in the region. Additionally, China is also a strategic player in the denuclearization efforts of North Korea. Combined with a “confidence dilemma”, as Director Hueng-Kyu Kim describes it, of United States’ commitment and role in the Asian Pacific due to its confusing rhetoric and behavior over the years, puts South Korea in an awkward position of being morally on the same page as the United States but having a strategic gap on how to address China; a dilemma that SK-Korea Foundation Chair Jung Park believes China will take advantage of to boost its own influence in the region.
Shifting over to section two, discussing U.S.-South Korean relations in the face of growing concerns over China, Seoul National University Professor Chaesung Chun framed this conversation around two questions: what is the ultimate goal of U.S.-China policy and how might the United States and South Korea overcome challenges amongst themselves to address these issues of contention? And interesting perspective brought up by Sung-Han Kim, Dean of GSIS at Korea University brought up in the conversation of section one was that the United States and South Korea’s strategies against China could be comparable to a Balance of Power versus Containment perspectives. Where the United States wants to ensure that China does not overstep its boundaries and gain dominance in the region, South Korea is more preoccupied with ensuring Chinese aggression does not disrupt the region but does not wish to eliminate them completely. This difference in perspective plays into the disconnect between allies where the United States believes in a military approach is best in contrast to South Korea, who has taken a diplomatic and economic approach with neighboring countries and would urge the United States to step up in its own role by committing to the region similarly in order to maintain collective security against China’s behavior.
In wrapping up the roundtable discussion and considering how to address the challenges faced by both countries, many of the experts on both sides, despite having conflicting perspectives on the posturing of each other’s countries, were able to agree that discussions like these are what continues to embolden the dedicated alliance between the United States and South Korea. Continued communication and narrowing down strategies in both policy and defense are needed to ensure not only the protection and interests of both countries but to maintain peace in the South Pacific region.
