On January 29, 2020, GW Institute for Korean Studies and East Asia National Resource Center co-sponsored the Korea Policy Forum on “Korean Politics 2020-Korean Security Issues and Challenges.” Moderated by Jisoo M. Kim, Director of Institute for Korean Studies, Young-Jun Kim, Professor at Korea National Defense University and Sang-Hyun Lee, Senior Research Fellow at the Sejong Institute gave talks on the prospects of a new domestic political geography in South Korea and its potential impact on Seoul’s foreign and security policy.
Firstly, Professor Young-Jun Kim gave a talk on “2020 Korea Politics and Korea Security Issues and Challenges.” Based on the previous elections in Korea, including the 2016 general election and the 2017 presidential election, he discussed the issues that might affect the result of the 2020 general election that will happen in April 2020. He started his talk by showing the poll that shows the support rate for each part in 2016 before the election. Prof. Kim introduced the major security issues that mattered in the 2016 election, including North Korea’s 4th nuclear weapons test, close of the Kaesung industrial complex, and filibuster to block the anti-terrorism bill. He explained that although Saenuri Party, the ruling party at the time, seemed to win the election according to the poll, it was actually the Democratic Party of Korea that won the election which was a failure for the ruling party. Then, he moved on to the 2017 presidential election and demonstrated that national security issues did not really influence the election, but instead, the impeachment and Choi Sun-Sil scandal were the most important factors in the 2017 election. He showed the recent survey that predicts the victory of the Democratic Party of Korea but also pointed out that the 2016 election result shows that the survey prediction is not always correct. Lastly, he introduced some security issues that South Korea faces, including denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, the ROK-US alliance, the ROK-Japanese relations, and defense policy issues. At the same time, he left a caveat that domestic issues play more important roles in the general election.
Followed by Prof. Kim’s talk, Dr. Sang-Hyun Lee gave his talk on “Korean Peninsula in 2020: Security Challenges and Prospects.” Dr. Lee started his talk, pointing out the unusual four-day party plenum that announced important decisions instead of announcing the supreme leader’s New Year’s speech. He posed a question about whether Kim Jung-Un is on the ‘new way’ or going back to the ‘old way.’ He said that Kim declared that self-reliance and economic construction all-out efforts will be his new way- in fact, returning to the ‘byeongjin line,’ but Kim is considered to have returned to the ‘old way.’ While Moon’s government has launched the peace initiative with New Korean peninsula regime and triple peace initiatives and has pained the rosy picture, Dr. Lee demonstrated that the reality is harsh and cold as the success of the New Korean peninsula regime and triple peace initiatives depend on progress in improving inter-Korean relations and denuclearization, both of which are now stalled. In addition, he discussed the weakening of denuclearization/WMD-related regimes and of norms and rule-based governance. Lastly, he introduced some of the future challenges that the Korean peninsula face, including elections and politics in South Korea and the United States and challenges for South Korean government, such as worsening inter-Korean relations, differences in the policy priorities, the U.S.-China strategic competition, and the U.S.-ROK policy coordination.
