On October 12, 2020, the GW Institute of Korean Studies and the KDI School of Public Policy and Management (KDIS) cohosted the 2nd North Korea Economic Forum Annual Conference (Part II). Session I, Moderated by C4ADS fellow, William Newcomb, was joined by a panel of academic and field experts including Sandra Fahy, Associate Professor of Anthropology at Sophia University; Stephen Haggard, Krause Distinguished Professor, School of Global Policy and Strategy at UCSD; Liuya Zhang, PhD Candidate, Ohio State University; and Jenny Town, Stimson Center fellow and Deputy Director of 38 North.
Elaborating on a number of traditional methodologies utilized in researching North Korea, each panelist explores the trials of uncertainty within each of their particular methods when trying to present accurate and meaningful information on North Korea. Beginning with a discussion of personal interviewing techniques, Ms. Fahy who has conducted extensive research on the 1994 Famine, spoke on the challenges of the credibility of information due to a concept described as testimonial injustice, where certain recounts or knowledge may be dismissed or considered lesser than others due to the perceptions and skepticisms of the superior group categorizing and presenting the information.
Stephen Haggard, with the assistance of Liuya Zhang discussed data collection techniques used to measure North Korea’s economic status through the use of international humanitarian aid and statistics taken from multilateral institutions such as the UN. The data provided by the sources however are often estimates, due to the scarcity of credible sources in North Korea. Even more so, the reliability of data from multilateral institutions has become a challenge due to accessibility. Economic statistics on North Korea have become scarce since 2014, when new sanctions were imposed on North Korea, limiting just China being the main international actor exporting data on North Korean exports and imports. The problem has resulted in a hierarchy of reliability and validity of data, making it difficult for researchers to again, provide accurate modeling towards such a hard target.
These uncertainties and limitations would continue to dip into the two further methodologies explored in the discussion, addressing the use of satellite imagery, presented by Ms. Jenny Town, who elaborated on how satellite technology, while useful in capturing snapshots of activity on the peninsula, can be outmaneuvered through the advance of technology such as tracking the location of these satellites, and also be prone to error, as the imagery of these satellites are not always precise or clear.
The challenges were brought forward in an open discussion between the panelist and the discussion board of Barbra Demick, Janice B. Milford D. Gerton Fellow; Nicholas Eberstadt, Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at AEI; and Melissa Hanham, Deputy Director of Open Nuclear Network. Here, both sides acknowledge that an extension of the problem lies in the gaps of accessibility to information gathering shared between sources in addition to errors made in the past as well as currently due to neglection of other avenues of activity taken by North Korea to outmaneuver outside sources and take other illicit means to maintain its economy. In exploring solutions to these issues at hand, the common theme proposed amongst the experts was a collaborative effort amongst all sources to provide coherent, confident estimates of data that are credible over time through cross-checking, and to explore other areas often overlooked in researching North Korea.
